Finding Value on First Basket Props

There are many aspects that our advanced model looks at when picking valuable first basket projections. Considering this is a long odds prop bet, finding an edge in this area is key, otherwise you can see your bankroll drop very quickly.

First, the importance of finding the best line. A great example came today when our model found Brook Lopez First Field Goal at +800 on BetRivers. His first basket line on Caesars is +525. With our $100 unit bet size, we can make $275 more just by taking this bet on BetRivers, which is crucial in the long run. This is why I always recommend having multiple books and also comparing the lines between First Field Goal and First Basket.

Matchups are one of the other key aspects to look at. Looking at Brook Lopez First Basket once again, we cashed 2 nights ago on this prop (that time it was +600) and the main reason the model loved the value was due to the positional matchup. The Bucks took on the Bulls who have lost the tip in 94% of games, and have given up the first basket to centers at a league high 61.54%. That is ridiculous and shows that the Bulls are unable to guard centers off the tip, so taking Brook Lopez at +600 was a value play.

Another thing to consider is who is consistently taking the first team shot. Although he has only scored the first basket twice, Josh Giddey takes the first team shot on Chicago in 44% of his games. Compare this to Zach Lavine who takes the first team shot only 15%, yet Lavine’s first basket odds generally sit around +600 while the model usually snipes Giddey at around +1000.

These are just a few things to consider when betting in this market, for all of our plays check out the discord!